The revolutions that shape us

Seven technologies that are making the industrial revolution look like the introduction of the pitch forkcrowds affected by revolutions

Just as the developed world was shaped by the industrial revolution — making the most significant and rapid change to almost every aspect of daily life as we know it — so our near future will be completely and radically changed by an imminent series of revolutions.

The advances in science and technology — and the way in which they feed into each other — create an ever increasingly rapid feedback loop that pushes us towards changes in society that we can barely imagine. Many give in to the temptation to sit back and wait for the impact to emerge; however — the gap in knowledge about these topics, and the breadth of their possibilities, creates a new socio-economic divide that will create a new super-class, or underclass. The more we know, the more we can shape how they impact each of us in society.

Let’s look at seven currently developing technological revolutions.

Artificial intelligence and robotics revolutions

Artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics will change the role and make up of the work force. Manual and intellectual labour has already begin to be gradually replaced by more efficient machines.

AI also functions as a base technology. Once we have AI working at a certain level it will enhance all other technologies and the way that they evolve, helping bring about other revolutions.

Media about the changing job market due to automation has proliferated recently. Yet it fails to recognise that this process has been going on for tens of thousands of years, ever since humans started using tools. Each tool (or technology) brought about more efficiency helping fewer people do more work. For a long time we still had enough work to keep most everyone busy.

As this process has sped up due to the scientific methodology, mechanical engineering and now computer engineering, we have reached a point where we have more people than work we need done. We also have an increasing amount of work done by fewer people. We will have to redesign our economy to meet this change.

Quantum computing revolution

We also have the revolution of quantum computing. Up to now, computing has improved in very small, incremental amounts. People like Ray Kurzweil have tracked this using Moore’s law showing that every 18 months computing doubles in power and halves in price.

As we head into the age of quantum computing, where we currently see breakthroughs, computing power will extend by orders of magnitude higher than that predicted by Moore’s law. This change will make Moore’s law seem quaint by comparison. A quantum computer can theoretically solve a problem that would take our fastest current computer a 10,000 years to compute in a matter of seconds.

Once again, quantum computing will enable a series of other revolutions to happen. For example: an AI running on a quantum computer can create much more powerful AIs, and that alone can change our entire world.

Genetics and biotech revolutions

The understanding of genetics across all species has redefined biology. The discovery of the CRISPR-Cas9 technology allows us to edit genomes as easily as we cut and paste text on a document. We’re already heading onto the second generation of this tech, just a couple short years after its introduction.

Genetics principal limitations come from processing power and analytical techniques, now helped by quantum computing and AI respectively. We’re exploring creating a programming language for life. This introduces the ability to design new life or edit existing life. This ability will allow us to create brand new plants, animals, microbes, and bacteria — from scratch. Whereas Jurassic Park revived dinosaurs from their fossilised genetic remains — this technology will enable you to design a whole new or vintage style dino.

Genetic processing will allow us to create personalised medicine to heal all manner of ailments. And also add abilities to existing genomes. For example, being able to regrow limbs like a lizard or see with sound, like a bat. This sounds outlandish, but as we all evolved from the same genetic source, it can all theoretically happen.

We may use these abilities to create humans better suited to surviving space travel and living in lower gravity planets. We may use it to create superfoods that contain everything a human needs, or even personalised food that only gives an individual what they need.

The biotechnological revolution will also allow us to create new materials and bridge the connectivity gap between the organic and silicon-based.

Brain-machine interface revolution

The deeper understanding of our brains began on the heels of our understanding our bodies through genetics. Brain-machine interfaces, where we connect organic brains directly to computers, continues its rapid growth. At its most basic. this means we get rid of keyboards, touchscreens and microphones as input devices, and we dispense with screens and voices as computer outputs. We communicate directly with machines using our brains.

This allows us to have external processing power, external memory along with thought-based control of our electronic devices. This also introduces the possibility of memory manipulation, allowing us to instantly download knowledge and experiences into our brain. Imagine, as part of your packing for a vacation to Italy, to download fluency in the Italian language the night before you fly.

In addition, coupled with the internet and networking generally this effectively, brings us a brain-to-brain connection. Essentially telepathy with the ability to transfer thoughts and even emotions to others; an unprecedented change in human and interspecies communication.

Energy revolution

Up to the present we have based our economy on the idea of limited resources. We have limited clean water, limited oil, limited materials, limited labour-force. Finite or costly energy drives the majority of these limits. However, over the past 5 decades, the cost of solar power has continually dropped and the power output risen, not quite in line with Moore’s law but not far off.

Presently the cost of solar has dropped below that of fossil fuels and continues to drop, even as efficiency increases. As the cost of energy approaches zero causing abundant resources to proliferate, we will have to redesign our entire economy. We already feel the pressures of that in the current global political environment.

The barriers to a lot of limited resources effectively disappear with abundant energy, for example, abundant energy equals abundant clean water.

Materials revolution

Over the centuries, the materials we have available to us have got better. Originally we used naturally occurring materials such as wood, limestone and iron. Then we started to create our own materials, such as plastics and steel, made from combinations or treatments of those we found naturally. Now we have begun to move to the next step: reactive materials.

These materials react to their environment, such as a cloth that stiffens under pressure or a polymer that changes colour with temperature. We have begun to use these in modern military armour and protective coatings for vehicles, for example. Imagine thin suit that makes you as impregnable as superman. We make these materials by designing them at a molecular level. These materials will soon give way to smart materials through our next revolution.

Nanotechnology revolution

Nanotech refers to creating machines at a very, very tiny size. These can be mechanical machines like a lever, complex machines like an engine, or digital machines such as a computer — but minute. At such a nanoscopic scale no one of these machines really has a huge effect but rather thousands or millions of them working in concert can have significant outcomes. Much like atoms or molecules.

Think of them as smart atoms or smart molecules, which then become smart materials that can adapt. This base technology enhances many other revolutions. Nanotech enables programmable matter. For example, imagine a whole house built of a smart material. A single room can automatically re-purpose from a bedroom into a kitchen in seconds, a smartphone could become a laptop or a you could create a window where one did not exist before. This technology, called claytronics, effectively fulfils the dreams of alchemists, while removing the need for manufacturing of all kinds.

In another use, when we place nanomachines in our bodies they can repair damage, optimise functions and remove disease. It may even stall or reverse aging, leading to a growing population of unaging humans.

No part of human society will escape the phenomenal effects of these technologically driven convergent forces.

Convergence

No one of these technologies stands alone. They will not bring about a singular revolution, but rather the convergence of these technologies will each bring as much change as the internet, the axle or controlled fire did. Each one of these technologies changed the direction and speed of advancing civilisation on earth. I just scratched the surface of seven such revolutions which we have underway — all at the same time. Many more exist: space exploration, augmented/ virtual reality, holography, climate engineering, digital currencies and more.

The impact of this convergence will bring about change like we have never seen. It will make the industrial revolution look like the introduction of the pitch fork. So what will change? These revolutions put into question many basic assumptions. They redefine communication, life, work, identity, culture and even the physical world. They will affect the structure of the economy, the meaning of power, the definition of work and the existence of nation states.

Conclusion

The French could not fathom life without the monarchy — until revolution brought about freedom and democracy. These technological revolutions will catalyse and redefine war, medicine, politics, economy and religion. No part of human society will escape the phenomenal effects of these technologically driven convergent forces.

Many experts and sofa-bound specialists argue that history shows that these revolutions will take a lot of time and be controlled by “men with guns”. As for timing, we know Moore’s law has shown an acceleration of innovation. With the introduction of these technologies we’re set to smash Moore’s law and accelerate at an unprecedented rate.

We can always listen to the argument that guns, germs, and steel rule our world and history shows that nothing will change. I find these arguments naive, at best, in the face of truly awesome technological advance. More and more these technologies fall under the guidance of private individuals and private companies. Breakthroughs both small and large come from entrepreneurs and enterprise, not governments and nations. As astrophysicist Matthew O’Dowd said, “our technology is fast outpacing our ability to choose collectively whether or not to use it.” It rests in the hands of individuals with the willpower, the imagination. and the finance to move it forward.

Now is the time to imagine the world we want. With some forethought we can help guide our future. Let’s not wallow in the past but attend to our amazing future.


This is part of the Freedom series, looking at how near future technology will change civilisation.

See also: Free energy will change your life, Free from screens, Free from fear

Free from screens: a sheep in wolf’s clothing — what to love about screentime

Over the past few months I have overheard or been embroiled in increasingly regular conversations with parents about the detriments of ‘screentime’. One friend recently shared an Atlantic article that even went so far as to declare a mental health crisis and claim that smartphones have destroyed a whole generation.

For the most part I agree with the article and the concerned parents — I have first hand experience of this with my own children, 12 and 6 years old. Significantly, the data tells a compelling story: since the introduction of the home computer and the iPhone, the number of teenagers going to hang out with friends has declined, fewer teens move out of their parents home, and happiness amongst 10–20 year olds has declined. Younger children play outside less, ask fewer questions, and default to screens over human interaction.

While I agree with the data, I found it jarring that both the parents and the article present a reduction in screen time as the only possible solution. Parents, experts, and the article’s author, barely even mention it as a conclusion — and just assume that the reader or listener would see banning and regulation as the only way to reverse the trend. I disagree.

I find the context examined in these arguments very limited, looking back at only the preceding two generations. To truly appreciate what’s going on, we need to look at it in a larger context.

A temporary drug

When we look back at the introduction of books into culture, we can imagine a similar scenario: “When I was a child I was running around in the woods at 6 and I was an apprentice bringing home money by 13. But look at young George, 14 years old, sitting by a candle reading books all day! We’re spoiling this generation!” This wasn’t the case — partly because the transition to widely available books happened slowly. We did not go from no books to ubiquitous books in a matter of months.

Modern technological advance happens so rapidly that our relatively rigid grey matter cannot adapt with enough self-consciousness to avoid the pitfalls of applying primitive desire for gratification to digital interactions: click here, get hit of dopamine, “Cool, I can do this all day.” Consider this a temporary state of affairs.

Smartphones will not last long in society. In 10 years they will be as familiar as VHS is to us now. We need to look at them as very temporary devices as we transition to integrated technology. At the moment the phone and other screens exist as portals to a lot more data, information and experiences than any individual has previously ever had access. Our slow brains with limited memory and an inability to have multiple conscious thoughts at once get overwhelmed and addicted. However as we — inevitably — integrate tech into our own bodies and extend our personal processing power, memory and even physical abilities, the brain will be able to catch up with quantity of input and be less overwhelmed.

The new senses

Aswe integrate technology, we will not need a lot of time focussing through a connected device. Trends — including augmented reality, artificial intelligence and blockchain technology — show that as everything becomes connected and every object begins to have a digital existence, we will begin to interact with the physical and digital versions of everyone and everything at the same time.

For example, think of your Nest thermostat hanging on your wall. You can currently reach out and touch the physical device. You can also reach out digitally through your phone and ‘touch’ the device. Imagine reaching out with your mind to change the temperature. The same for your best friend. You can meet them for a cup of tea in person or you can interact with their digital self by commenting on their Facebook post. Imagine sending them a thought message directly, from your brain to theirs. This experience will adapt to all people and items: your fridge, your grocery, the traffic light, your car, the swimming pool, the Amazon shop — we will interact with the world in a profoundly different way. Imagine opening the blinds with a thought or watching three TV streams at once, comprehending them all.

Technology has already begun to integrate into us. Look at the person with Air buds in their ears, with Snapchat glasses, and a smartphone in their hand. Amber Case in her Ted talk, ‘We are all cyborgs now,’ accepts the definition of a cyborg as “an organism to which exogenous components have been added for the purpose of adapting to new environments.” Next we’ll have contact lenses projecting info on our eyeballs.

Soon we can connect ourselves directly to our tech using a neural link between our brain and the internet of everything. Companies like Bryan Johnson’s Kernel and Elon Musk’s Neuralink hope to provide the interface between our physical self and our digital world. We can look at the smartphone as a lame simulacrum of this link that serves as the infant phase of the full transition to cyborg.

We need to guide our biological evolution to join pace and merge with our technological one until we cannot tell the difference. This young generation represents part of that transition which started a long time ago. Anything that stands in the way of this movement will get disrupted, adapted and often displaced, no matter how permanent it may seem. This includes how we see our very selves.

Education over regulation

A more interesting path explores ways to integrate digital interaction into our children’s lives, rather than limit them. While we progress to an enhanced technology future, how can we get children to balance the instant gratification of screens with the supposedly more beneficial analogue-world interaction?

I created a chart for my kids to help them develop healthy analogue and digital habits. I seek for them to have full freedom to use their screens whenever they want, but responsibly: taking care of situations in both analogue and digital life.

The chart hangs on the fridge, with a magnet marking how much access each child has to their screens at any time. Ideally, the child maintains consistenly positive choices, gaining full control forever and making the chart redundant. It may not work for everyone, but I know a lot of adults who could benefit from this exercise too. The chart helps the kids take control over their whole life without imposing the idea that analogue life somehow holds more importance or that we consider digital an unnatural state.

As Yuval Noah Harari says in his book, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, “Culture tends to argue that it forbids only that which is unnatural. But from a biological perspective, nothing is unnatural. Whatever is possible is by definition also natural. A truly unnatural behaviour, one that goes against the laws of nature, simply cannot exist, so it would need no prohibition.”

Technology comes from the natural processes of the evolution of our brains and our culture. Seeing screens as some unnatural experience or an enemy of society that we need to limit, insults history and displays extreme short-sightedness.

What’s next in this new world?

We have not lost this new generation to smartphones. As parents, belonging to an older generation, we have been left behind as a new technological transition advances beyond our willigness to comprehend. This new world requires new skills which children crave and which we complain about just like our parents complained about TV or the PC.

We assume our solution means we have to get kids back to being ‘normal’, but they consider screen life the new normal. They need these skills to transition to what comes next. Like the generations before us, we can either get on board, get out of the way, or simply become irrelevant. You choose.


This is part of the Freedom series, looking at how near future technology will change civilisation.

Originally published on Medium

See also: Free energy will change your life

free energy will change your life

The entire history of all living things relies on a simple principle: we live in a world of limited resources. It defines how organisms evolve, how societies act, how economies change, and how governments run (or fail). We take this assumption so much for granted that if anyone refutes it, they’re considered ignorant or insane. Tell someone that one day we will have unlimited food or energy and see their response. Civilisation as we know it is going to have the biggest shake-up yet: because this guiding principle will no longer be relevant.

The hunter about to spear fish

Scarcity as truth

Until now, scarcity has ruled our existence. We base the value of anything on how much effort it takes to get it or make it. Make a pair of sandals in India for 89 cents, sell it in London for 89 pounds. The time, skills and effort needed to source it, transport it, package it, and market it adds the value. De Beers has bought, shut down, and lobbied for regulations against, at least 5 companies that have developed large pressure containers that can create a real diamond the size of an almond in a few days. Economics 101: rarity creates value for useful things.

Moreover, the person who can get it, gets rich. An oil company that builds the rigs and ships gets the money. A hunter who could provide fresh meat regularly ruled the tribe and got his choice of meat, shelter and companionship. How much payment depends on the energy expended to get the item and the scarcity of the item. Whether moving a product from one side of the world to another, or killing your prey faster, value comes from effort expended, which we measure in energy.

Efficiency as a driver

Efficiency rules. The hunter that brought back the most food did not necessarily have the most strength. He may have used his wits to hide at the right vantage point and used his skills to distract and bring down his prey. He would finish the hunt early, after expending less energy. He uses this extra energy to either hunt more, bringing more value, or enjoy his spoils more, living a better life. Spending less energy to get more product makes for more wealth.

The more energy and efficiency a group has, the wealthier it becomes. We only have to look at the GDP across the globe to see this. But all of this has begun to change. The decentralisation of energy production that comes from renewable power — especially solar, wind, nuclear and hydro — changes the equation. In the last 40 years, installation cost of solar panels has dropped from $77 per watt to $1 per watt, and it continues to drop.

solar panels as far as the eye can see

Free energy changes everything

Recently Elon Musk (who arguably has done more for making solar practical than any other person alive) told government officials that the entire US could be powered with 100 square miles of panels in a sunny state. In the last 6 months alone, 3 separate new technologies have emerged that can radically drop this cost. A few weeks ago a paper came out that shows how to make a solar cell 50% more efficient. Solar has now become cheaper than any other power source. Soon we will have more energy than we can consume.

An abundance of energy will mean the cost of energy will approach — and eventually reach — zero. When energy has no cost, how do we value everything else? The cost of production will approach zero. The cost of mining will approach zero. The cost of development will approach zero.

What about material resources?

We also have to consider the limit of material resources. Abundant energy will allow for ease of creation of heavier materials. Material scientists already create more complex and useful materials that more and more will replace the materials created naturally by pressure and time.

Just look at graphene, a superconductor stronger than steel, lighter than metal and made of carbon, one of the most abundant elements on earth. Once we overcome a few engineering challenges, the only real barrier to mass production lies in the energy consumption cost. Free energy, free graphene.

Even if we were to deplete earth’s resources, the main thing holding back asteroid mining? Yes, the high energy cost of getting into space.

Remember the hunter? If any tribe member could go out and grab a free burger instead of waiting for the bounty of the hunt, how would the hunter be valued? The single underlying truth of how we organise everything, a world of limited resources, will no longer exist.

The current state of play

This process is not about to happen. In fact, it has been happening all around us for the whole of human history, accelerating in the last 450 years since the establishment of science, and moving even faster in the last 20 because of computing technology.

We can see it in the politics of today as the people who rely on the status quo to remain wealthy lash out. They rage against the machine their companies made possible, fighting to maintain scarcity, reducing distribution of wealth, reducing education and brainwashing the resulting dullards to act against their own interests. We see it as businesses that follow the old guard struggle to maintain the economic system, even as startups emerge that use hyper-efficiency to nibble away at their profits, then get bought by tech giants and we watch the old companies die. Only a few learn to adapt. The choice becomes a choice as old as time: adapt or die.

The world as we desperately cling to knowing it, has a new foundation: unlimited energy, leading to abundance of all things. Space mining requires energy: solved. New material production requires energy: solved. Artificial intelligence requires energy to run machines: solved. And so on and so on, abundance, abundance, abundance.

What’s next in this new world?

How will we live in this new world? How will we organise ourselves when nation states and the economy we know no longer have a place? Will we fight this losing battle against this change and traumatise ourselves as a species, or will we embrace it and speed towards a future of abundance, choice and wealth? What do you choose?


This is part of the Freedom series, looking at how near future technology will change civilisation.

Reposted from Medium

See also: A sheep in wolf’s clothing: what to love about screentime

The current technology revolution, free from fear

 

Don’t let your brain fool you into fears of a technology future

VR goggles will feature in this year’s festive Facebook feed no doubt, as Grandma tries out little Johnny’s new hot technology craze from under the tree – remember drones in 2014, and hover boards in 2015. And we will surely laugh  — just watch this video, popularised by George Takei and TNW, shows a man falling over after falling off a cliff in VR. That man would probably say that, for a split second, he thought he would die from the fall.

VR-Man-Falling-courtesy-TNWAs well as providing some entertainment, this video shows an interesting phenomenon that will change our world significantly: when immersed in VR, our fairly primitive brains cannot distinguish VR from reality when planning our reactions.

When immersed in a VR experience, we know that we’re standing in a room with others, we know we have a large contraption on our head, we know we have gloves on, we know where to find up, down, left and right. Yet when we see a stimulus that challenges all this knowledge, we respond to the stimulus and not the knowledge.

Danger or opportunity?

We could interpret this cognitive dissonance as a danger — as the linked TNW article does; or we can see an opportunity — like most entrepreneurs and enterprises do. Many innovative companies and universities explore how to use VR to solve problems. The Virtual Reality Medical Centre in SanDiego has started to treat fear and anxiety disorders. The US military has developed training for their soldiers to avoid death in harsh environments. And startups have begun to extend experiential learning to many more communities than have access to the real experience.

Like the man’s reaction to his VR cliff, our reaction to new technology often seems to come from our primitive brain as well. Any unknown, any slight disruption from our current norm and we immediately start to use words like “danger”, “dial-back” and “we’re all gonna die!” – our psychological cliff. In history the people who moved humanity significantly forward – pioneers, renaissance men and women, geniuses – all had the opposite reaction to the unknown. They used words like “opportunity”, “challenge” and “innovation”.

In the end we all have benefitted from the activities of these people yet we still fight them and their ideas. Look at stem cell research. We have now found that stem cells can revive and repair stroke victimseliminate scarring from third degree burns, and help rejuvenate us – and we’ve only scratched the surface. Yet we’ve spend the best part of the last 30 years finding ways to impede the progress of its study. We want the benefits and yet every step of the way, we hamper progress with politics, with religion, with violence. Why?

Why we sabotage our future

We can explain this reaction in a number of ways. I posit two principal reasons: fear of the unknown, and the conservatism bias.

I often argue that every non-pathological fear comes down to fear of the unknown. Fear of death = we’re afraid of what happens (whatever our beliefs). Fear of change = not knowing what that change may bring. Fear of insects = uncertainty as to their intent and how they may feel against our skin. It always seems to come down to a lack of knowledge. Interestingly this means that to conquer fear we need learning. Fear of learning = uncertainty about the disruption the new knowledge may bring to our seemingly comfortable status quo  —  as demonstrated by the rise of a regressive political movement that’s elected an anti-science, anti-evidence, anti-learning Trump government.

Conservatism bias also leads us to resist ideas that benefit us. We believe that because something has become tradition, it brings an inherently greater benefit than anything new  –  the traditional mindset. Take monarchy, for example. For thousands of years all societies had a belief in the superiority of the ruling class. Even the most down-trodden peasant would rather die than question that authority. Except for the few that did. It took revolution after revolution to break that tradition and bring about modern democracy. Hopefully it will not take as long or as much death to discover what we need to replace democracy.

Most people will find that last sentence sacrilegious or impossible or ridiculous or unpatriotic – if so, you just experienced the problem of conservatism bias. Our habits and norms seem the best to us (“better the devil you know…”)  –  we have difficulty imagining what comes next, and the idea that we might find it better, if different.

How we embrace our future

So the current trend away from facts, our anti-science stances, our clinging to what we know comes from fear and habit. The counters to these: learning and revolution.

Yet revolution does not have to involve violence but rather can come from technology. These litter our history: agriculture, the wheel, running water, blacksmithing, gun powder, computers, internet. And will pepper our future: stem cells, solar power, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, genetic manipulation, in-brain chips, space exploration, nanotechnology, quantum computing, and so many more that we do not know about yet.

We can fight this future or we can embrace it. We can use learning to fight our fear, and use lessons from history to quiet our conservatism bias. We can enjoy the coming life of unlimited energy, abundant food, endless knowledge, and eternal life. We laugh at the guy who fell of the VR cliff because he could not see beyond the immediate bubble of his senses  –  but does our resistance to the coming changes seem any different? Will future humans laugh at us?

The dawn of artificial life

Look around and remember your surroundings, your life, your world. Take a mental snapshot. What you see represents the birth of a world of robotics, bionics and artificial intelligence. You live at the dawn of artificial life. Remember now so you can see how far we will have travelled. Just a decade in our future you will not recognise the world of today.

 

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cauri runs rhubarb studios, a technology incubator in downtown Los Angeles. He is instructor fellow for product management and user experience at General Assembly; he also designed the curriculum and teaches at General Assembly product management. cauri loves technology and wonders who will be the first person to take a limb off intentionally to get a more powerful prosthetic.